Despite Gains, Time is Now to Boost Pressure on Iran

By Abram Shanedling

As most expected, recent talks between Iran and six world powers, including the U.S., collapsed quicker than they started. The two-day meeting in Istanbul last weekend stalled when Iranian negotiators demanded a halt to sanctions and refused to address the country’s nuclear development. This latest failed dialogue comes amid reports that Tehran has experienced several “setbacks” in its weapons program due to tougher economic sanctions, covert cyber viruses, assassinations and disappearances of Iranian nuclear scientists.

While Iran may in fact be experiencing nuclear difficulties, it is still clear that the Islamic Regime has not yet seriously altered or quit its determination and work to attain nuclear weapons capability.

As the leading state sponsor of global terrorism, a blatant violator of human rights and the greatest destabilizing force in the Middle East even without nuclear weapons, pressure on Iran must be stepped up.

Diplomacy Has Its Limits

In the last two days of fruitless discussions in Turkey, the six world powers - the U.S., Britain, France, China, Russia and Germany – pressed Iran to resolve international concerns over its nuclear enrichment program starting with a nuclear fuel swap. However Iran rebuffed the proposals, asserting that its nuclear program is only for peaceful purposes and that it has full rights to enrich uranium despite United Nations demands.

The latest failed dialogue should come as no surprise, since diplomatic engagement with Iran has always had its clear issues. First, all previous attempts to negotiate with Iran in the past several years have amounted to nothing. In early December, the two sides convened in Geneva - the first meeting between Iran and western powers in nearly 14 months. Yet this summit made no headway, besides arranging to gather a month later in Istanbul.

And with two days in Turkey ending without even an agreement on when and where to meet again, we arrive at the second issue: the longer the world waits for diplomatic gains without receiving tangible guarantees from the Iranian regime, the more time Iran has to run out the clock for its nuclear program.

Current Sanctions Are Only a Step

Targeted economic and trade sanctions in the last few months by the UN Security Council, the U.S. Congress and the EU have been tightened and are beginning to have a clear impact on the Iranian economy. With blocked access to much of the global banking and energy sector, Iranian companies are finding it increasingly difficult to handle major transactions in dollars or Euros. And since the Geneva talks, new restrictions have been imposed on Iran’s gasoline imports as well as bans placed on material and equipment the country can use to repair and build advanced nuclear centrifuges.

Yet despite these signs, reports and leaked diplomatic cables detail how Iran continues to find ways to bypass the sanctions in its pursuit to purchase nuclear and missile technology as well as oil from countries including China and India, acting in clear violation of the UN mandated trade restrictions.

Cyber and Covert Warfare May Have Slowed, but Not Stopped Iran

Much of the latest focus on Iran’s nuclear program has hovered around the damage inflicted by the “Stuxnet” computer worm, which The New York Times recently pegged to a joint American-Israeli sabotage effort. The highly sophisticated virus has apparently interfered with Iran’s computer operating system, putting about a fifth of the uranium enrichment centrifuges out of action. Additionally, Iran is investigating the deaths of two nuclear scientists and the wounding of another, all of which it has blamed on Israel.

As a result, many are confident Iran’s nuclear program has been delayed. Israel’s outgoing Mossad chief Meir Dagan went so far as to tell reporters two weeks ago that Tehran is now unlikely to acquire a nuclear weapon until 2015, though he later added that “under certain scenarios, [Iran] could shorten the timetable.”

Yet what needs to be underscored is that while cyber attacks, covert sabotage or even a military strike on Iran may indeed impede the Islamic Regime’s nuclear work, it will not eliminate it. Despite setbacks, Iran continues to increase its uranium enrichment, test new missile systems and even produce back-up nuclear facilities in case of an attack.

Iran is the Largest State Sponsor of Terrorism

Most worrisome about Iran is its open sponsorship of global terrorism and regional instability. According to the U.S. State Department, since 2000 Tehran has been the leading state backer of terrorist organizations. This includes Hamas in Gaza, Shi’ite insurgents in Iraq, and most notably, Hezbollah in Lebanon - the terrorist organization created by Iran and responsible for the most American deaths prior to 9/11.

Lebanon is most alarming today, as Hezbollah two weeks ago caused the collapse of the government now has appointed the prime minister. This after the Hezbollah is expected to be indicted in the assassination of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri.

Unfortunately, because of Iranian meddling, Lebanon may soon become only one example of regional instability, as several Middle Eastern countries, including Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Jordan have already begun looking into their own nuclear development.

The situation in Cairo, especially, is not looking pretty.

With growing Iranian influence in Latin and South America, the prospect of a nuclear Tehran that would embolden the regime and the physical capabilities of its proxy terrorist organizations is one we cannot afford to merely delay.

Time to Make a Difference

In light of the revelations of Iran’s nuclear setbacks and the impact of certain sanctions, the world community must not see this as a time to let up on pressure. As Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton stressed this week, the immediate danger of Iran may have been temporarily delayed, but that does not mean the issue should lose its sense of urgency. “We don’t want anyone to be misled by anyone’s intelligence analysis,” she said. “We have time. But not a lot of time.”

More importantly, now is an opportunity to make sure Iran gives up its quest for nuclear power for good. Instead of allowing the prospect of future talks to give Tehran even further time to skirt sanctions and press ahead with nuclear enrichment, a more comprehensive group of actions must be sought, enacted and enforced. This must rely less on sequence, but rather a combination of efforts.

Likewise we must make sure that world leaders penalize and hold accountable those companies and countries still trading with Iran’s energy sector, Revolutionary Guard or banking industry.

The world may now have received an extra window of time with Iran. It cannot afford to waste it.

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Interested in more information about the history of Iran and the threats of its current nuclear development? On February 8, see the new documentary Iranium. Reviewing the growth of the Iranian nuclear threat, the film features rarely before seen footage of Iranian leaders and interviews with leading politicians, Iranian dissidents and experts on Middle East policy, terrorism and nuclear proliferation.

Visit www.iraniumthemovie.com for more information on the film and read more about the controversy it has already stirred with the Iranian government!

Additional Reading:

Diplomacy, Sanctions, and Sabotage: Putting Pressure on Iran, Washington Institute for Near East Policy

How Sanctions Can Work with Iran, The Diplomat

Iraq: Threats of Foreign Influence, Al Jazeera

Israeli Test on Worm Called Crucial in Iran Nuclear Delay, The New York Times

Take Initiative on Iran, Hasbara Fellowships