Why Shalit Coming Home means Hamas is in Trouble

• Hamas feeling pressure from inside, outside Gaza
• Fatah-Hamas alliance is shaky; biggest funder Iran facing isolation
• Deal shows how much Israel values human life, but Israel is also very careful with risk management

The Shalit deal didn’t just materialize out of thin air thanks to genius Egyptian mediators (although they certainly deserve some credit - Shalit negotiator David Meidan claims the final round of talks “took 24 hours long without sleep”).  In fact, a close look at some of the factors that made this 11^th hour deal possible clearly shows Hamas was pressured into this deal and Israel seized the window of opportunity.  The good news for Israel is, these pressure points for Hamas aren’t going away.  Let’s take a look:

1) Diminishing popular support

As Kristen Chick of the Christian Science Monitor reports, Hamas has “hit a new low” in popular support following its opposition to the Palestinian UN statehood bid in September.  Rising taxes and corruption have long been a source of discontent in Gaza, where Hamas officials drive luxury vehicles while ordinary Gazan residents struggle to make ends meet.  With Hamas’ opposition to the Palestinian statehood bid at the UN, the grumbles are getting louder.  Hamas is having difficulty positioning itself as the sole champion of Palestinian rights while it is quarreling with Fatah in the unity government and opposing their statehood bid.  Gaza is not immune to the Arab spring, and Hamas likely feels pressure to quiet the masses in order to avoid a similar uprising.

While the release of 1000 Palestinian prisoners to 1000 families will temporarily relieve the pressure of mass discontent, don’t be fooled by Hamas’ democratic leap into power five years ago – they are far from popular, and rising international sanctions coupled with the Obama administration’s continuing threats to halt economic aid to the PA will not make life any easier for Hamas.

2) Losing headquarters in Damascus

Meidan cites the loss of the Hamas headquarters in Damascus because of Syrian unrest as a major factor in bringing Hamas to accept the deal.  After Egypt and Jordan turned down Hamas’ requests to host their headquarters, Qatar agreed to take the terrorist group in – but refused to accommodate Hamas’ top military leaders. With the uncertainty sweeping the region from the Arab spring, Hamas is losing its once-reliable allies, and has even been forced into an uncomfortable alliance with its once-mortal enemy, Fatah.  This uncertainty means Hamas is being pressured from outside as well as within.

3) Key Al-Qaeda assassinations have weakened terror worldwide

Following the much-publicized assassination of Al Qaeda leader Osama Bin Laden, the US quietly followed up with counterpunches: Anwar Al-Awlaki, viewed by many as a potential replacement for Osama, was killed in a drone strike over Yemen two weeks ago that also took out Samir Khan, editor of al-Qaeda’s English magazine.  Pres. Obama called Awlaki’s death “a major blow to al Qaeda’s most active operational affiliate”.  This followed the death of Fazul Abdullah Mohammed, al Qaeda’s leader in East Africa, in a shootout in Somalia in mid-June.  Continuing US pressure against al Qaeda has resulted in the group being at its weakest point in perhaps the past decade, with US Intelligence Chief David Petraeus predicting last month that within 18-24 months, the core of al Qaeda could be degraded to the point where “the group will fragment and exist mostly as a propaganda term”.

4) The Iranian regime is on thin ice

All of the previous factors wouldn’t have posed a serious problem to Hamas if Iran had been able to continue pumping money and weapons into its terror proxy.  While Iran is undoubtedly continuing to support Hamas, there have been tiny cracks in the alliance as of late, brought about by high tensions from the Arab Spring.   According to diplomatic sources, Iran cut its funding to Hamas over the past two months because of Hamas’ “refusal to throw rallies in Palestinian refugee camps in Syria in support of Assad, an ally of Iran”. Hamas is being forced to walk a thin tightrope between its main funder, Iran, and not angering too greatly its own people in Gaza.

Furthermore, with the recent foiling of the Iranian plot to kill the Saudi ambassador on US soil, Iran will undoubtedly face another round of global needling. Vice President Biden has already said, “I think what we have to do is unite the entire world against Iranian behavior”. It’s too soon to say how this will all play out, but the trend is toward increasing global pressure and isolation of Iran, which will surely not facilitate Iran’s funding of Hamas.

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While there is understandable fear of future violence from the released prisoners in the Shalit deal, the IDF has proven to be exceptional with risk management. According to a credible source formerly with the Chief of General Staff cabinet in the IDF, less than half of released prisoners return to terrorist activities, and of those who do, Israel keeps very close tabs on.  In one case, Hamas mastermind Ahmad Yassin was released in 2004 and was assassinated in an Israeli apache helicopter strike less than a year after his release when he continued taking an active role in planning terrorist attacks against innocent Israeli citizens.  So, as always, we can expect that the Israeli government will place the security of its citizens as a #1 priority.

Whether one supports the Shalit deal or not, one thing is certain: a trade of 1000 prisoners for one illegally kidnapped Israeli soldier clearly shows how much Israel values even a single life.  As the new year dawns, let’s continue praying for a safe return for Gilad Shalit, and for the continued safety and security of Israeli citizens.